Race for 'God particle' heats up

By James Morgan Science reporter, BBC News, Chicago

Lyn Evans says the magnet incident was a real setback for Cern

Cern is losing ground rapidly in the race to discover the elusive Higgs boson, its American rival claims.

Fermilab say the odds of their Tevatron accelerator finding it first are now 50-50 at worst, and up to 96% at best.

Cern's Lyn Evans admitted the accident which will halt the $7bn Large Hadron Collider until September may cost them one of the biggest prizes in physics.

The two rivals are trying to identify the "God Particle" - one of the fundamental particles of matter.

Finding the Higgs boson, whose existence has been predicted by theoretical physicists, might help to explain why matter has mass.

The chiefs of the world's most powerful atom smashers squared up at the the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) annual meeting in Chicago.

Grand prix

Identifying the "God Particle" has been a target for the European Organization for Nuclear Research (Cern) ever since the LHC was first conceived in the early 1980s.

We are increasing data set very quickly. And they [Cern] are feeling the heat Dmitri Denisov, Fermilab

At the launch of the LHC near Geneva in September, some scientists predicted the Higgs would be revealed as soon as summer 2009.

But just one week later, an accident occurred which will halt experiments at the accelerator for at least 12 months.

Fermilab has taken advantage, cranking up the intensity of research at their Tevatron accelerator in Illinois.

Director Pier Oddone presented the Tevatron's latest data at the AAAS meeting.

"We now have a very, very good chance that we will see hints of the Higgs before the LHC will," said his Fermilab colleague, Dr Dmitri Denisov.

"I think we have the next two years to find it, based on the start date Lyn Evans has told us.

"And by that time we expect to say something very strong.

"The probability of our discovering the Higgs is very good - 90% if it is in the high mass range.

"And the chances are even higher - 96% - if its mass is around 170GV.

"In that case we would be talking about seeing hints of the Higgs by this summer."

Treasure hunt

The smaller the mass of the particle, the more difficult and time consuming it will be for Fermilab to detect.

The Tevatron is located at Fermilab near Chicago

But even at the lowest end of the range, the chances are "50% or above", according to Mr Oddone.

"Tevatron is running extremely well. We are in the peak of our shape," added Dr Denisov.

"We are increasing data set very quickly. And they are feeling the heat.

"Instead of having their usual Christmas break - of two months - they are planning to run all the way through.

"It's a race. Whoever is first is first."

Fermilab estimates that the Tevatron has already picked out about eight collision events which may be hints of the Higgs.

But until the number crunching is done, it is not possible to distinguish these from "background noise".

Fired up

Sitting shoulder-to-shoulder with Dr Denisov was his counterpart Professor Lyn Evans, LHC project leader.

"The race is on," he told BBC News.

"The Tevatron is working better than I ever imagined it could. They are accumulating data like mad.

"The setback with the LHC has given them an extra time window. And they certainly will make the most of it.

"If they do find the Higgs, good luck to them. But I think it's unlikely they will find it before LHC comes on line. They may well be in a position to get a hint of the Higgs but I don't think they'll be in a position to discover it.

"And of course, if it's not in the mass range they think it is, they have no chance of discovering it at all. Pier Oddone put the odds at 50-50 but I think it's less than that.

"In one year, we will be competitive. After that, we will swamp them."

The competition was healthy for "both parties". Though missing out on the Higgs would be a "sour consolation".

"The trouble is, the LHC has been sold on being built for the Higgs," said Prof Evans.

"But don't forget, there is also a whole spectrum of physics to be investigated at the LHC which the Tevatron can never do."